As the noise around a US recession grows louder, advertiser demand is expected to take a hit, and retailers banking on ad revenue from retail media might need to look elsewhere for spare change.

Retail media, growing at roughly 20% YoY, has become a core component of planning between brands and retailers, making it less susceptible to media market volatility. However, since it’s a relatively new marketing channel and hasn’t been through a significant recession yet, it’s hard to say definitively, experts told Retail Brew.

Separately, advertising research firm World Advertising Research Center (WARC) has cut its global advertising forecast by $19.8 billion, citing overall macroeconomic uncertainty.

As advertisers face intense scrutiny to justify ad spend, three experts told Retail Brew that while retail media isn’t immune from a recession, it may be more resilient compared to other advertising channels. The throughline is advertisers tend to rely on performance-based ad channels with measurable ROI during economic downturns.

Keep reading here.—VC

Spring triggered a wave of home and garden activity upgrades on Shopify in March.

Leaf me alone: Gardening fever led to massive spikes in orders for items like sprinklers and sprinkler heads (up 388%), pergolas (up 242%), and outdoor umbrellas (up 240%), per the latest data from Shopify shared first exclusively with Retail Brew.

Orders for hammock parts popped at 237%, followed closely by orders for gardening forks at 221%. This budding yard transformation movement led shoppers to spend more across the board on items like gazebos (up 210%) as well as pot and planter liners (up 188%). Plant bulbs, birdhouses, seeds and seed tape, and porch swings also saw significant sales bumps.

Beach face: At the same time, spring also ushered in the much awaited opportunity to update closets with light layers and relaxed clothing. In March, orders for chino shorts and tank tops surged 302% and 300%, respectively. Consumers also shelled out money to buy sun hats (up 216%), bermudas (up 144%), bucket hats (up 132%), and denim shorts (up 98%).

Keep reading here.—VC

Retail giants like Walmart and Target have warned of a drop in consumer confidence lately. And now, somewhat-less-than-giant mall favorites are also sounding the alarm.

American Eagle, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Kohl’s, and Ulta all offered muted or downbeat guidance for FY 2025, with some forecasting single-digit sales and revenue drops. Executives said tariffs, inflation, and federal layoffs have left consumers spooked.

“Fear of the unknown”: American Eagle Outfitters, for instance, had record revenue of $5.3 billion last year and saw 4% same-store sales growth. But its Q4 sales dropped a bit from Q4 2023, and sales have been slow heading into 2025, CEO Jay Schottenstein said.

Consumers are cautious right now due to a “fear of the unknown. Not just tariffs, not just inflation,” he said.

Keep reading here on CFO Brew.—CV