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While Halloween-heads are busy propping up their 12-foot skeletons, industry experts are crunching the numbers for their first holiday season sales forecasts.
Deloitte predicts holiday sales between November and January will increase 2.3% to 3.3% in 2024 from the year before, marking a slowdown from a 4.3% increase in 2023.
Although as Salesforce pointed out in its own holiday forecast, the 2024 holiday season is at a slight disadvantage with the fewest number of days since 2019. The platform is also predicting a slowdown: with a 2% YoY bump in US sales growth, compared to a 3% increase in 2023. It also found that 47% of shoppers expect to spend the same as last year, while 40% plan on buying less.
Cautious consumers: Looking at the macroeconomic picture, Akrur Barua, economist at Deloitte Insights, said, “Although the pace of increase in holiday sales will be slower than last year, we expect that healthy growth in disposable personal income (DPI), combined with a steady labor market, will support a solid holiday sales season.”
- He added that inflation could be both a headwind and tailwind this year, because while slowing price increases could help the consumers’ purchasing power, it could also negatively impact the dollar value of sales. Mounting credit card debt could also indicate that pandemic-era savings are tapped out, he said.
Deloitte also expects e-commerce to drive this year’s gains, growing between 7% and 9% YoY.
“Our forecast indicates that e-commerce sales will remain strong as consumers continue to take advantage of online deals to maximize their spending,” Michael Jeschke, principal at Deloitte Consulting LLP, said. “While this holiday season reflects a return to trend levels of growth, retailers who focus on building loyalty and trust with consumers could be well positioned for success.”