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Imports are surging as possible labor strikes loom at major US ports, and retailers are stocking up for the holiday season, according to logistics software provider Motive.
Motive said the Port of Los Angeles saw 60% YoY growth in imports in July, and that imports via commercial vehicles from Laredo, Texas, on the US-Mexico border were up 24.4% in August—the highest level in four years and an indicator that a shift to nearshoring is having an effect.
The surge in imports could indicate that retailers are preparing for supply chain disruptions and higher shipping costs, per Motive. as the October 1 deadline for a labor agreement between the International Longshoremen Association (ILA) and port owners on the East Coast and Gulf and Mexico approaches. The ILA handles 43% of US imports at these ports.
But these labor troubles shouldn’t curb spending come the holidays, it said.
“While the port strikes could significantly disrupt the supply chain and cause higher consumer prices in 2025, we don’t think strikes would significantly impact Q4 consumer spending and holiday shopping,” the company wrote in its monthly economic report.
Stocking up: Indeed, Motive is anticipating a strong Q4, contrary to some other recent reports suggesting a slowdown in spending this year. It said retailers are bringing in product earlier than in previous years, continuing the “restocking momentum” of the summer months. Motive Big Box Retail Index found that truck visits at grocery and superstores were up 14% YoY and up 27.1% at department and apparel retailers.
“We expect this to continue to climb as retailers continue restocking inventory ahead of the holiday season and potential port strikes,” the company wrote. This restocking spree has been underway since March, Motive added, but it is expected to start surging in the last week of September and peak in November, which could help mitigate the effects of any near-term fallout from labor strikes at ports.