Deck the halls with crystal balls because the major holiday sales predictions are in.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) last week discussed its forecast that total retail sales would increase between 2.5% and 3.5% in November and December, down from 3.8% in 2023 and below the 10-year, pre-pandemic average of 3.6%.
But Mark Mathews, executive director of research at the NRF, told reporters to keep in mind that this number is not adjusted for inflation, so the fact that goods prices are actually in deflation means the forecast reflects real sales growth.
“Retailers are having to sell more units at this point to be able to show performance above what they saw in the previous year,” he said.
He noted that while consumer sentiment has been lower, those measures are relatively poor indicators of spending. “They’re spending what’s in their wallet as opposed to what’s in their heads, which has been relatively beneficial for the economy,” he said.
Several major consulting firms in recent weeks have put out their own forecasts. Some are tentatively optimistic, like NRF, while others are slightly more pessimistic, like Bain & Company. For a quick summary of these numbers, here is Retail Brew’s one-stop shop for holiday predictions. That way, when the dust—or maybe snow—has settled, you can look back at how well expectations matched with reality.
Sales projection: The management consulting firm forecasts US retail sales to grow a “subaverage” 3% this holiday season, down significantly from its 10-year average of 5.2%. Bain’s proprietary Consumer Health Index showed a worsening financial outlook for consumers, with higher-income households seeing the steepest declines.
Key insight: The group is anticipating a wide disparity between in-store and online sales, predicting that in-store sales will grow just 0.5%, which is the lowest since the Great Recession, and non store sales will grow 9.5% year over year.
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Spending projection: The consulting firm’s annual survey found that consumers plan to spend $1,778 on the holidays, up 8% year over year.
Key insights: The group attributed the increase to a rosier economic outlook, higher perceived prices, and increased spend from the $100K to $199K income group. It also said consumers will be prioritizing experiences, which are set to grow 16%, compared to a 3% drop in gift spending.
Spending projection: Based on survey data, the accounting firm predicts that shoppers will spend an average of $1,638 on a combination of gifts, travel, and entertainment related to the holidays. This is up 7% from 2023. Key insights: The report predicted that spending will bifurcate across income groups, with one-third of consumers earning more than $65K per year planning to spend more, compared to just one-fifth of consumers earning less than that.
Budget projection: The real estate conglomerate estimates that holiday budgets on average are up 31.7% from 2023, bringing total spending on gifts, holiday food, experiences, and decorations to $1,261.
Key insight: This report also noted a decline in gift-giving, which is expected to make up 46% of holiday budgets, down from 55% in 2023. Expected spending on food and decor, meanwhile, jumped 61%.
Projections: Looking exclusively at online sales, Adobe Analytics expects US sales to hit $240.8 billion this year, up 8.4% from 2023. This is also nearly double the 4.9% growth of that year.
Key insight: The research group said heavy discounting leading shoppers to trade up is behind the bump—though its estimate that discounts will be as high as 30% off listed prices is on par with 2023. It’s also expecting mobile purchases to grow 12.8% and hit a new milestone in market share at 53.2% of online spending.