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Bad weather and election fears didn’t put a damper on retail spending in November. The latest federal data showed a 0.7% increase from the month before and 3.8% from the year before.
J.P. Morgan analyst Christopher Horvers wrote in a research note that the return of cold weather and strong Black Friday spending offset “post-election uncertainty and unfavorable weather” earlier in the month.
Six categories out of 10 tracked by the bank accelerated year over year, he explained, including non-store, sporting goods, home improvement, general merchandise, and auto parts.
- Per the monthly report from the Commerce Department, sales at non-store retailers increased 1.8%; increased 0.3% at furniture stores; 0.3% at electronics and appliance stores; and 0.4% at building material and garden equipment stores.
- Meanwhile, sales were down 0.2% at food and beverage stores; 0.2% at clothing and accessories stores; and 0.1% at general merchandise stores.
Right on schedule: National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement that holiday spending is on track to meet the trade group’s forecast of 2.5%–3.5% over 2023.
“This growth comes even though the late timing of Thanksgiving delayed the beginning of the busiest shopping portion of the holiday season and pushed Thanksgiving Sunday and Cyber Monday sales into December,” he wrote.
Still skeptical: However, some economists noted that consumers are wary going into the new year.
“The headlines will say that retail spending remained resilient in November as consumers stocked up for the holidays,” Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers wrote in a statement. “But the underlying details suggest widening price-conscious shopping behavior as more households end 2024 on a cautious note.”
Ayers pointed out that auto sales and online spending buoyed the headline number, with “many households opting to buy gifts from their couches rather than head into stores.”
“But most remaining spending categories showed weaker advances on the month with many shoppers cutting back on expenses where possible with total sales ex-autos only up 0.2% on the month,” he wrote.