Retail sales ticked up 1.4% in March as consumers shop ahead of tariffs

Retail sales rose 1.4% to $734.9 billion in March and 4.6% year over year, the Commerce Department reported today. The sales bump follows the underwhelming 0.2% rise in February, and could indicate consumers are stocking up on products before their price tags are boosted by tariffs.

Last week, the Consumer Price Index, reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed inflation dropped 2.4% annually and 0.1% month over month—the first monthly dip since May 2020, and the potential calm before the storm of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs.

The largest increase came from motor vehicle and parts dealers, up 5.3%, leading the supply of new and used vehicles in the US to quickly decline. Retail trade sales—which excludes motor vehicles, parts, and gas stations—were up 0.8% from February.

Food and beverage store sales notched up 0.2%, with a 0.1% increase for grocery stores, while sales at health and personal care stores rose 0.7%. Categories that also saw sales bumps include clothing and accessories stores (0.4%), miscellaneous store retailers (0.7%), and general merchandise stores (0.6%—though department store sales dropped 0.3%).

Nonstore retailers, composed largely of online sales, grew sales by just 0.1% after 2.4% growth in February. Furniture and home furnishing stores saw sales decline 0.7%.

Even as sales rose last month, the back and forth of President Trump’s tariffs, paused for another 90 days last week, with the exception of China, is impacting consumers, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement.

“There is no question that the consumer is not feeling great given the confusion of policy announcements from Washington,” he said. “On-again, off-again rising tariffs and resulting turmoil in the stock market and world economy are clearly impacting consumer concerns about higher prices and future consumer spending growth.”

That appears to be reflected in the latest consumer sentiment index The University of Michigan released last Friday, which revealed an 11% slip to 50.8, marking four straight months of declines. Consumers’ inflation expectations jumped to the highest they’ve been since 1981, as they’re anticipating a 6.7% jump in prices in the year ahead.