There’s an old theory among economists that sales of men’s underwear are a reliable measure of which way the economy is headed.
Now known as the Men’s Underwear Index (MUI), the idea originated with former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, who believed that underwear was exactly the kind of basic necessity that a consumer might delay purchasing if they were worried about their financial future
Whatever the merits of this theory, underwear could prove a bellwether in the latest economic crisis as President Donald Trump implements staggering new tariffs on major trading partners such as China and Vietnam.
According to Mack Weldon, a direct-to-consumer underwear brand, sales of men’s underwear spiked 90% since March 15, including following the president’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on March 18. In addition, Google searches for “men’s underwear” surged over the same period.
In response to increasing demand, Mack Weldon is trying out a new marketing strategy it calls “price-locking,” which is designed to soften the impact of tariffs with a promise to maintain prices at their current level until at least July 4, regardless of what happens with tariffs.
“This is a really tense economic environment that we’re all living through,” CEO Brian Berger told Retail Brew. “We just found that this was an opportunity to present something that offers medium-term stability for our consumers in the form of a price lock.”
Betting on the future: With the COVID-19 pandemic training consumers to anticipate price increases whenever costs rise, the upside for customers is clear. But why would a company limit its pricing flexibility in such a volatile market?
One answer to this question is that Mack Weldon is prioritizing pressing its competitive advantage over taking margin.
Berger explained that many of its competitors are more exposed to imports than Mack Weldon, which has invested in diversifying its supply chain in recent years. As a result, the company is likely to pull back on ad spending in marketplaces such as Google and Meta, creating an opportunity for “brands that are able to show up and continue to invest at a similar cost structure and a similar margin structure that they had been able to prior to this tariff.”
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To some extent, Mack Weldon is also betting that current tariff rates will be negotiated down.
“Many of the markets that we’re producing in are ones where it’s in everybody’s interest to come up with something that’s a bit more reasonable,” he said.
A win for DTC: The flexibility built into the DTC model is also helping Mack Weldon navigate this environment. With much of its distribution still going directly to consumers, rather than through wholesale channels as fellow DTC brands have increasingly done, Berger said the company has more flexibility in managing its inventory and pricing levels.
If a large portion of its product were sent out to wholesalers right now, those retailers could end up taking dramatic pricing actions on its products that could be at odds with its direct brand strategy. Since the brand is less at risk of losing margin down the line from retailers discounting its goods, it can afford to hold prices steady now.
It also has the flexibility to respond to big swings in consumer demand. Berger said Mack Weldon has looked to the Men’s Underwear Index for insights, in particular the tendency of shoppers to bulk buy ahead of a downturn.
It also doesn’t hurt that Mack Weldon is mainly selling underwear as opposed to a more fashion-forward product category that is constantly in need of refreshing.
“We don’t ever want to have too much inventory, or certainly too little inventory,” Berger said. “But if we are in a situation where we are slightly over invested to capitalize on potential opportunities, that’s okay.”
In other words, a few extra pairs of underwear in the drawer can’t hurt.