Retail Brew delivers the latest retail industry news and insights surrounding marketing, DTC, and e-commerce to keep leaders and decision-makers up to date.

Retail Brew

Andrew Adam Newman

retailbrew.com

Target hoped for a back-to-school shopping 

, but foot traffic fell for the seventh straight month in August, and now a national teacher’s union has joined a boycott against the retailer.

In August, foot traffic fell 3.3% year over year for Target, with the week beginning August 25 (which included the long Labor Day weekend) dropping 4.6%, marking its worst weekly decline in seven weeks, according to data from Placer.ai.

At Target rival Costco, foot traffic was up 5.2% YoY for August, while Walmart was slightly down 0.6%.

On Labor Day, both the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) and the Chicago Teachers Union (CFT) 

 they were joining the boycott against Target over it rolling back some diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) efforts earlier this year. The boycott, which was spearheaded by black clergy, 

“We rarely engage in this type of action, but we’re doing so here because Target betrayed promises to communities of color throughout the United States,” AFT President Randi Weingarten 

On January 23, President Trump vowed to “abolish all discriminatory diversity, equity, and inclusion nonsense,” and Target announced 

 it was ending some DEI initiatives, which Weingarten didn’t think was a coincidence.

“Target rolled back promises to help the people who have been loyal customers, because of a president who is trying to roll back history and ignore the struggle for freedom and justice,” Weingarten said. “Those customers, who have helped Target’s bottom line, now feel set aside, ignored, and dismissed.”

 that it “stands in solidarity with the boycott of Target, recognizing the rollback of its DEI initiatives as part of a broader ideological attack on equity.”

The country’s second-largest teachers union behind the National Education Association, AFT represents about 1.8 million teachers and other workers; the CFT represents about 30,000.

Target did not respond to a request for comment about the foot traffic decline and teacher boycott.

 on classroom supplies, according to the National Education Association. For the current school year, teachers will 

 an average of $895 out of pocket for school supplies, up from $600 in 2015, according to a national survey by 

Back-to-school is Target’s “second-biggest season of the year,” behind the holidays, Rick Gomez, EVP and chief commercial officer at Target, 

 in a June earnings call. In a June report about Target possibly staging a “

” during the then-upcoming back-to-school season, Placer.ai said that August historically has been the retailer’s second-biggest month—after December—for store visits.

 on its website, Target highlights incentives for teachers to buy supplies, including half-price subscriptions ($49) for annual membership to its Target Circle 360 loyalty program, exclusive discounts, and a wishlist tool to build “your dream classroom.”

The retailer also has a “Gift Ideas for Teachers” 

“Thanks, Teach!” Target’s website enthuses. “Show a little love to the ones who have taught you the most.”

Target sees seventh straight month of foot-traffic declines

During back-to-school season, teachers unions joined Target boycott over DEI.

Foot traffic fell 1.3% year over year at American Eagle for August, the first full month after it launched its controversial Sydney Sweeney campaign, according to Pass-by data provided exclusively to Retail Brew.

The campaign “Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeans,” has faced criticism for allegedly having eugenics undertones and being hypersexualized, as we 

American Eagle competitors that also launched denim-themed celebrity campaigns appeared to fare better with foot traffic in August. The Gap, which 

 a viral video featuring the diverse all-female group, Katseye, on August 19 (four weeks after the Sydney Sweeney campaign launch), saw foot traffic climb 2.8% YoY for the month of August, per Pass-by. For the week that began August 25, the first full week after the Gap campaign launched, foot traffic rose 8.5% YoY. At Levi’s, which 

 a campaign featuring Beyoncé on August 4, traffic was up 1.8% for the month over last August.

 to collect and analyze its foot-traffic data, including infrared sensors, pressure mats, and anonymized data collected from smartphones.

The Sydney Sweeney campaign has had vocal defenders in very high places, including 

. The New York Post, dismissed the campaign’s critics as a “

In response to a request for comment about foot traffic, Rebekah Margulis, an associate vice president at Shadow, a PR firm that represents American Eagle, directed Retail Brew to comments pertaining to overall traffic from executives during a September 3 earnings call for American Eagle Outfitters, Inc (which along with American Eagle owns the brands Aerie, Offline by Aerie, Todd Snyder, and Unsubscribed). Margulis pointed out that Sydney Sweeney items for American Eagle, like a jacket and jeans, sold out in one day and one week, respectively, with items curated by the actress “performing four times better than AE’s other women’s items.”

During the earnings call, executives made several references to traffic increasing YoY for the second quarter across its brands, but did not reference in-store 

 traffic more specifically (as opposed to web traffic or a combination of both) .

We asked the company to clarify whether it had internal data that differed with Pass-by’s findings that foot traffic was down at American Eagle’s brick-and-mortar stores. It did not comment on foot traffic.

For Q2, which ended August 2, 10 days after the Sydney Sweeney campaign began, revenues increased 2% YoY for the company overall, but 

 for the American Eagle brand, falling from $827.6 million to $800.4 million, a drop of 3.3%.

 with Marketing Brew, American Eagle CMO Craig Brommers was triumphant about the Sydney Sweeney campaign, stating that it resulted in an “unprecedented spike” of 790,000 new customer acquisitions and nearly 320,000 new social followers.

“Sydney Sweeney is worth every single dollar that we invested,” Brommers told Marketing Brew. “Every single marketing metric that I look at is flashing a green light, and we’re only six weeks in.”

Syndey Sweeney poses wearing denim in an image with the text, "Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeans."

Foot traffic down 1.3% at American Eagle for month

Traffic up at Gap and Levi’s, which also launched celebrity denim campaigns, per Pass-by.

Exclusive: Foot traffic down 1.3% at American Eagle for month after Sydney Sweeney ad 

 American Eagle campaign featuring actor Sydney Sweeney by prominent Republicans, including President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, appears to be helping boost sales for the brand more than the campaign itself, according to Consumer Edge data and analysis provided exclusively to Retail Brew.

Consumer Edge estimates companies’ revenues based on credit and debit card data from more than 93 million US cardholders. In an August 11 

 based on data that lagged by about a week, Michael Gunther, head of insights and VP at Consumer Edge, noted the “media frenzy” over the ads—which some allege promote eugenics and are oversexualized—caused a spike of buzz and website traffic for American Eagle. But at the time, Gunther concluded, it had not “yet translated into increased spending” for the brand or boosted its market share.

But after Retail Brew asked him to update the data, Gunther found that things had taken an interesting turn for American Eagle. Since the campaign had launched on July 23, YoY spending growth, meaning a credit card was used to spend more at American Eagle than last year (or to make a purchase there when it hadn’t last year), had consistently been higher for Democrats. On a graph, they looked like two sawtooth lines, with the Republican line roughly parallel but always below the Democrat line.

Around August 5, however, spending started increasing more steadily among Republicans, and on August 9, spending growth among Republicans overtook Democrats, and the rise continued to shoot upward on August 10 (the last day for which data is available), while it dipped only modestly for Democrats.

“This reversal suggests a reshuffling of consumer alignment, with Republicans increasingly engaging even as Democrats’ contribution moderated,” Gunther wrote in a yet-to-be-published blog post on the data.

Here’s an even shorter potential explanation: Donald Trump.

While prominent Democrat politicians have not publicly criticized the Sweeney campaign—the backlash has come largely from social media and celebrities including 

—major Republican politicians have defended the ads, often implying Democrat politicians really 

“My political advice to the Democrats is continue to tell everybody who thinks Sydney Sweeney is attractive is a Nazi,” Vance told the 

. “And it’s like, you guys, did you learn nothing from the November 2024 election?”

 that since June 2024, Sweeney has been registered as a Republican in Florida. When CNN 

 Trump about it two days later, he replied, “If Sydney Sweeney is a registered Republican, I think her ad is fantastic.” That same day, Trump took to social media to 

, “Sydney Sweeney, a registered Republican, has the ‘HOTTEST’ ad out there. It’s for American Eagle, and the jeans are ‘flying off the shelves.’”

It was only after Trump’s comments rather than “initial coverage of the ad campaign” when the needle began to move for American Eagle sales, Gunther told Retail Brew.

According to Consumer Edge, the brand notched market-share gains in the wake of Trump’s comments, from slightly more than a 17.5% share of the market on August 2 to rising to slightly more than 19.5% on August 9 and dipping slightly under 19.5% on August 10, the last day for which data is available.

The apparent boost the brand may be getting from Republicans could be resonating more at American Eagle because over the past 12 months its purchasers have been 7% more likely to be Republicans compared to other brands in the apparel, accessories, and footwear industry, according to Consumer Edge.

—to the Sweeney campaign from conservative shoppers will result in sustained gains for American Eagle is an open question.

“It’s going to be important to monitor whether or not this is sustained or if it’s a blip, and we don’t know that yet,” Gunther said.

Foot traffic at American Eagle also suggests that initial 

 to the campaign may be turning around. Pass_by reported that after the Sydney campaign broke, foot traffic at its stores declined 3.9% YoY for the week that began July 27 and 

 for the week that began August 3. For the week that began August 10, foot traffic rose 2.6%.

An American Eagle ad featuring Sydney Sweeney in Times Square. 

Spending increased more among Republicans following American Eagle Sydney Sweeney campaign, thanks to Trump and Vance

Trump’s defense of campaign helped more than ads themselves, per Consumer Edge.

Exclusive: Spending increased more among Republicans following American Eagle Sydney Sweeney campaign

There’s no crystal ball when it comes to predicting a company’s quarterly financial results, but when it comes to Target, foot traffic data from Placer.ai over the last five quarters might be mistaken for clairvoyant.

 to find its mojo since thriving during the height of the pandemic, and which has faced 

 since backtracking on its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) efforts in January, reports Q2 financial results on Wednesday.

In the past five quarters (beginning Q1 of 2024), what Placer.ai has reported as Target’s year over year foot traffic changes have differed from Target’s year over year total revenue changes by an average of just 1.2 percentage points. In the first quarter of this year, for example, the analytics firm reported Target’s YoY foot traffic decline to be 4.1%, and Target subsequently reported a YoY total revenues decline of 2.8%, a difference of 1.2 percentage points. (Going back further, to the 13 quarters beginning Q1 of 2022, the difference between the firm’s YoY traffic estimates and Target’s YoY revenues differed by an average of 2.3 percentage points.)

For the second quarter of 2025, Placer.ai reports that foot traffic at Target is down 3.1% YoY. That means that if the correlation between its foot traffic reporting and Target’s total revenues reporting in the previous five quarters is consistent, Target will report a total revenue decline compared to the second quarter of 2024 of between 1.8% and 4.4%.

’s estimate that its foot traffic is down 3.1% for Q2, and whether it will report YoY revenue declines close to that. Target did not respond.

This correlation between its foot traffic estimates and Target’s revenues came as no surprise to RJ Hottovy, head of analytical research at Placer.ai.

“They’re generally pretty highly correlated,” Hottovy told Retail Brew, referring to the correlation between foot traffic and revenues generally, not just with Target.

When the foot traffic and revenues are less correlated, Hottovy continued, is when retailers make significant gains with e-commerce, in which case the revenue change will be more impressive than the foot traffic change.

“If the company has seen a big shift to online retail, the sales number should probably outperform the in-store visitation number,” Hottovy said.

Target’s revenues track closely to foot traffic, Q2 foot traffic is down 3.1%

Target reports Q2 earnings Wednesday.

Target’s revenues track closely to foot traffic. Q2 foot traffic is down 3.1%

Foot traffic at Target fell year over year for the sixth consecutive month in July, and while the slump began the week after the retailer backtracked on its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) efforts, some analysts say the real culprit is that Target is slipping on retail basics.

In July, foot traffic at Target fell 3.8%, according to Placer.ai. Since 

 it was curtailing DEI on January 24, foot traffic has been down YoY for 25 of the last 27 weeks.

) have linked Target’s traffic losses to it eliminating some DEI initiatives (and the ensuing 

 led by Black clergy), Walter Holbrook, an industry veteran whose resume includes 28 years as an executive at Kmart, believes that a bigger issue is Target struggling with the basics.

Holbrook makes regular visits to a Target store in Jacksonville, Florida, and said that twice while shopping there on Sundays after church in the last two months, the store’s shopping cart corral was completely empty, something he 

 once in a LinkedIn post. For the average consumer, the not-OK corral might have been just an inconvenience, but for Holbrook, a retail standard-bearer, “I could have exploded,” he told Retail Brew.

“That’s the fundamentals,” Holbrook said. “If you can’t get that right, you can’t get anything right. If you don’t know that carts need to be kept filled on a Sunday afternoon, you’re in the wrong business.”

Over the Fourth of July weekend, Neil Saunders, retail analyst and managing director at GlobalData, visited a Target and 

 15 photos on LinkedIn that documented shelves that were understocked (or completely empty), soiled, and in disarray.

Target is “still not getting the basics right,” Saunders wrote in the post. “Fixture after fixture, including lucrative endcaps, are devoid of product. Essentials like kitchen paper are completely out of stock.”

While there were “some nice ideas,” including a display with sundae toppings, “these things fall flat if you can’t get the basics right,” Saunders wrote. “Target is still training customers to ask: Why bother coming to the store?”

Target did not respond to Retail Brew’s requests for comment about the foot traffic data and reports of issues like poorly stocked shelves.

 that about 40% of 260,000 Target employees who completed an internal company survey said they were not confident in the company’s future, a reported decline from a year ago.

“While we recognize the hard work and progress under way, we’re not where we want to be,” Target CEO Brian Cornell told the WSJ.

Ethan Chernofsky, CMO of Placer.ai, told Retail Brew that one of Target’s strengths is how it has found footing in what he calls the “bifurcation of retail” between luxury and value. Locating mini-stores within Target stores from retailers including Disney, Apple, and Casper creates a shopping environment that serves shoppers who don’t fit neatly in the luxury or value category but rather in the “middle” of both, Chernofsky said.

“The ‘middle’ is, ‘I will spend more on the Disney toy for my kid, I will spend more on my iPhone, but I want to save money on socks,” Chernofsky said. “[Target] nailed that for so long, and that was what set them apart and made their growth so unique and special.”

But in doing so, Chernofsky added, Target has raised expectations among consumers that they’ll have a more elevated experience than in a typical discount store, and he said his own experience is that the service at Target in the last year has not been as high as before, which he partly attributed to labor shortages faced by all retailers.

“Labor shortages are more significant for someone who’s trying to nail that middle area,” Chernofsky said. “For someone who’s super value-oriented”—as opposed to being in that value-luxury middle—“if you’re not getting great service at Five Below, you’re not like, ‘Oh my God, nobody said hi to me.’”

Ironically, perhaps, since his company’s data has been 

 in documenting Target’s foot traffic declines over the last six months, Chernofsky believes the company’s ability to straddle discount and luxury is why it will rebound.

“I’m weirdly more bullish about [Target] than I’ve ever been because I think the issues are very fixable,” Chernofsky said. “They live in this place where no one else is existing today, and that’s a really good place to be.”

 Cornell is expected to retire after his contract ends 

“This decision by the board for new leadership is the most important decision in years for Target,” Holbrook said, adding that he also admires the retailer even as he’s found the shopping experience there wanting over the last couple years.

“The retail industry is better off if we have a strong Target,” Holbrook said. “We need them to counterbalance everything else that’s going on, whether it’s Walmart or Amazon. We need that Target influence of fashion and style in the middle class that they can bring and capturing that aspirational shopper.”

A photo of a single shopping cart in a Target shopping cart corral.

A few days ago, on Saturday, August 9, Holbrook sent us a photo he’d snapped at about 11 am at his local Target. The photo was of the store’s shopping cart corral.

Target foot traffic falls for sixth straight month

Backtracking on DEI less a factor than Target slipping on basics, say analysts.

Foot traffic fell 9% year over year at American Eagle stores for the week that began August 3, marking the second week of traffic declines since the retailer launched its controversial campaign featuring actor Sydney Sweeney, according to data from 

American Eagle launched its campaign, “Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeans,” on July 23. For the first full week after the campaign, which began on July 27, its foot traffic declined 3.9% YoY. In both of the two full weeks preceding the campaign, its traffic increased over last year, up 5.9% on the week that began July 6 and 4.9% on the week that began July 13.

The latest week (from August 3 through August 9) saw foot-traffic declines among some of the retailer’s direct competitors for younger clothing shoppers, too, though not as steep as American Eagle’s 9% YoY drop. Abercrombie & Fitch experienced lower foot traffic (-3.3%), along with H&M (-4.9%), Gap (-2.8%), and Urban Outfitters (-2.7%), per Pass_by.

Correlation, as ever, is not causation, so there’s no telling if the Sweeney campaign has directly impacted American Eagle’s foot traffic.

Retail Brew asked American Eagle to comment on the foot-traffic data. We asked whether, according to its own data, traffic and sales have increased or decreased since the campaign launched. American Eagle did not respond.

, some have criticized the campaign for what they claim are eugenic undertones and for being oversexualized, while others, including The New York Post, dismissed the critics as a “

.” Vocal defenders of the campaign include 

A photo of Sydney Sweeney wearing denim that's part of a new American Eagle ad campaign. 

Foot traffic down 9% at American Eagle after Sydney Sweeney ad

Traffic fell for both weeks since the campaign dropped, per Pass_by.

Exclusive: Foot traffic down 9% at American Eagle following Sydney Sweeney ad controversy

Foot traffic at Target fell 3.9% year over year in June, marking the fifth consecutive month of declines for the retailer since it 

 it was rolling back some of its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) efforts.

While June’s foot traffic decline was worse than those in April (-3.3%) and May (-1.6%), the drop was not as precipitous as February (-9%), the first full month after the company’s DEI shift, or March (-6.5%), according to data from Placer.ai.

In the 22 weeks following its ending some of its DEI initiatives, Target’s foot-traffic fell from 2024 levels for all but two weeks, posting modest increases of 0.4% in the week that began April 14 and 0.1% in the week that began April 21, per Placer.ai.

, Target CEO Brian Cornell attributed declining traffic and revenues at Target to “five consecutive months of declining consumer confidence, uncertainty regarding the impact of potential tariffs, and the reaction to the updates we shared on belonging in January.” Here “belonging” refers to DEI: The company’s now-archived 

 called “Belonging at the Bullseye.”)

Over the same five-month period, Costco, which 

 demands from the Trump administration and shareholders to dismantle its DEI initiatives, store visits by consumers were decidedly better. Foot traffic was up every month, although June represented its most modest gain, up just 1.6%, down from a 5.1% increase in May.

 on CNN in May headlined “DEI is winning with Costco, Apple and Levi’s shareholders” cites a Costco proxy investment to shareholders that states, “Among other things, a diverse group of employees helps bring originality and creativity to our merchandise offerings, promoting the ‘treasure hunt’ that our customers value.”

Reputation analytics firm Caliber bases its “Trust & Like Score” on how strongly consumers agree or disagree on a seven-point scale to two statements: “Target is a company I trust” and Target is a company I like.” The score calculates the average of the two responses, but instead of a number from 0 to 7, the score is more like a grade on a pop quiz because, as Caliber puts it, it is “normalized to 0-100.”

Target’s Trust & Like score fell from 70 in January to 65 in June, its lowest this year, according to data Caliber provided to Retail Brew.

In the wake of its DEI shift, Target has been subject to a 

 that were down 2.8% YoY, and, in its hometown of Minneapolis, 

 from the recent Pride Month festival by Twin Cities Pride, which ended a years-long sponsorship partnership with the retailer.

On June 26, four Target executives including CEO Cornell  and Kiera Fernandez, EVP and chief community and stakeholder engagement officer, met in Washington, DC, with members of the Congressional Black Caucus’s (CBC) Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Taskforce.

 following the meeting, Representative Yvette D. Clarke, who chairs the CBC and represents New York’s 9th Congressional District in Brooklyn, decried Target’s “unconscionable decision to end a number of its diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts.” She added that “the explanations offered by the leadership of the Target Corporation fell woefully short of what our communities deserve and of the values of inclusion that Target once touted.”

The CBC urged Target to “reinstate” DEI measures it curtailed or eliminated and, in a “public forum,” to “recommit the company to the values of diversity, equity, and inclusion.”

Earlier efforts by Cornell to address the DEI backlash have included 

 with civil rights leader Al Sharpton and issuing a 

Brian Harper-Tibaldo, director of media Relations at Target, declined to comment to Retail Brew about the Black Caucus’s demand that Target reinstate DEI initiatives, Caliber’s findings about its reputational decline, or Placer.ai’s foot-traffic data.

Its data about Target’s declining foot traffic has been 

, but Placer.ai also predicts that the retailer could soon turn things around.

 on its website, Placer.ai noted that monthly YoY foot-traffic declines had been progressively smaller, going from 9% in February to 1.7% in May. This, Placer.ai concluded, “signals potential recovery momentum.” (The post was published on June 24, before 

 calculated traffic falling 3.9% in June).

The post noted that, thanks to back-to-school shopping, August historically has been Target’s busiest month (behind December), while February, March, and April are among its slowest.

“This seasonal strength offers more than just high traffic volume,” Placer.ai stated. “It presents a unique comeback opportunity.”

DEI